Ten years following the UK embarked on a hasty referendum that polarised the nation and caused turmoil, a advisory emerges from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the same might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two prominent journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to form a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and seismic referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum very quickly," the commentator stated. "In my opinion that the political architecture of our archipelago remains very unstable."
New Title Seeks to Encourage Dialogue
The team have analysed the governmental, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or should haunt every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you find yourself with an extraordinarily divided society where the losing side are resistant to defeat and the those successful are uncertain quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue such a time is looming, and a organisation named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists play down the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Political rhetoric for and against unification has hidden the absence of substantive discussion, stated the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which might go beyond that to realise it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in scholarly circles but very few elected officials or advocates want to engage with even the essentials. For instance, what sort of state should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author supports unity or the status quo. They composes two articles that aim for neutrality in laying out the rationale for a unified Ireland and the case against, assembling economic and societal statistics, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, national debt responsibilities and the risk of loyalist violence. The goal is to educate and provoke conversation.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the republic, where voters report they support unity but reject increased taxation or implementing a different emblem to recognise unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the offer from nationalist groups is beyond just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we love you'," remarked O’Toole.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist believes a referendum in his era is probable and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who says: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end not succeed but all factions has got something to acquire from the alternative arguments."
Appeal for Broader Discussion
Westminster must join the dialogue, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It's a British issue as much as it is an Irish matter."
